Fast fire rates volley Between the United States. and Porcelain In recent days, the world fears of a new commercial war between the two largest economies in the world have increased. However, although experts think that the battle is likely to increase, they also say that the first skirmishes offer hope for an agreement on trade and other key issues that could avoid a larger conflict.
After the additional tax of 10% of the Trump administration in Chinese imports entered into force on Tuesday, China announced a 15% tariff In the US coal and liquefied natural gas, along with a 10% rate on crude oil, agricultural machinery and some cars, which will kick on February 10. China also puts limits to exports of vital minerals used in high -tech products; He opened an antimonopoly probe on Google; And he placed two US companies in a list of “unreliable entities”: PVH Group, owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a biotechnology company with offices in China.
In particular, however, the United States chose to hit China with a relatively modest tariff, instead of levies of up to 60%, since President Trump had previously threatened. For his part, Beijing also achieved his blows by attacking the least vital American sectors, leaving the door open so that the sides reach an agreement.
“Believe [Mr. Trump] He supported the largest Chinese rates because it was clear that he would eliminate any possibility of negotiation, “a former Undersecretary of Commerce for Export Administration and Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. I think it was with a number that would not avoid future negotiations and still send a signal, so it ended with 10%. “
For now, Wall Street investors are also taking the new commercial sanctions of countries calmly, betting that neither Mr. Trump nor Chinese President Xi Jinping are anxious to start a mutually destructive economic war.
“Everything is rhetorical for now. This is the negotiation stage,” said Bill Dendy, financial strategist of the Raymond James investment bank. “It’s as if two brothers start talking, and they will start throwing blows, but they don’t want to hurt. It’s not good for anyone if you get out of hand.”
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of Economics of China in Capital Economics, told investors in a report that China’s retaliation measures “have clearly been calibrated to try to send a message to the United States (and the national public) without inflict too much damage. ”
Even such efforts to avoid a full -fledged commercial war could hesitate, stimulating Trump to follow a tougher line against China, which has long said he uses a variety of unfair practices that fade to US companies and workers.
“Edge of a cliff”
Reinsch said that Mr. Trump and XI maintain discussions towards an agreement that could lead to tariffs being repealed, or at least suspended. “All these are leverage movements,” Reinsch said. “The purpose is to force a negotiation on whatever [Mr. Trump] He wants to negotiate, and he is good in Brinkmanship. He climbs to the edge of the cliff as he did with Canada and Mexico, and then backed up in a way that allowed him to declare victory. “
Mr. Trump on February 1 announced 25% tariffs in the imports of Canada and Mexico. But the United States quickly Paused those tasks for a month After the leaders of both countries said they would increase their efforts to curb the flow of illicit and migrants to the United States.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “agreed to supply 10,000 Mexican soldiers on the border that separates Mexico and the United States,” Trump wrote in Truth Social. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada would invest $ 1.3 billion to better protect its southern border.
“Trudeau and Sheinbaum discovered that this is the way of playing it. If Trump is given an exit ramp where he can say: ‘Ok, I won’, he will take it, and that is what happened,” Reinsch said.
If this dynamic will ultimately work with China, and if XI is willing to please them, it is still uncertain. After all, during Mr. Trump’s first mandate, he repeatedly imposed tariffs on China, which led Beijing to retaliate every time. Some experts think that Trump officials will have to press much more to obtain the type of changes that probably satisfy Trump.
“This marks the fifth consecutive time that Beijing has retaliates to tariffs, instead of making the necessary reforms. The first four times happened during Trump’s first mandate and also obtained zero results. At some point, President Trump must discover that tariffs will not give him what he wants from China, “said Ryan Young, a senior economist of competitive Enterprise Institute, a defense group that favors deregulation, said in a statement to CBS Moneywatch.
Risks to consumers
The risks of a growing commercial war between the United States and China are considerable, including the increase in inflation.
“If we continue to go down this path, that can be very harmful to the consumer of the United States because it is the consumer who pays for these rates, since the costs are not easily absorbed by the industries that already have adjusted margins,” he said Dendy
Unless countries find an advance, “Americans can expect to pay much more for their technological goods, as well as their clothes and other things,” he added.
On the contrary, it is unlikely that US prices shoot in the short term, even if the conflict continues, economists point out. On the one hand, tariffs to the growing would probably slow down economic growth, cushioning inflation as consumers and companies stop spending. Reinsch also points out that many US companies that import assets from China have prepared for the perspective of higher costs by preventively building their inventories.
An area where American consumers could feel an immediate impact: their cheap clothing purchases of fast fashionable retailers Shein and Temu. The new American tariffs on China eliminate an exemption for packages worth less than $ 800, which means that low -value goods are now subject to taxes.
The United States receives approximately one billion shipments of this type annually.
“If you are Temu and Shein, you will probably be a success in two lands. They will have to start paying tariffs on dresses and t -shirts, so they will receive a blow,” Reinsch said. Those costs would be passed to buyers. In addition, Trump has asked Customs and the border protection of the United States to inspect the low value packages that project them for fentanyl, which could create shipping delays. “
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