Spatial debris Going going back to Earth could be a growing problem for airplanes, the researchers warned in a new study.
The authors of the study, all affiliated with the University of British Columbia in Canada, said that the probability that the space remains reach a plane is small, but the risk increases due to the increases in the re -entering of space waste and flights . The study focused on rocket bodies, which represent a higher risk due to their size.
“While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic,” said the researchers in the study, which was Posted in scientific reports. The study is based on the work of the authors presented at the International Conference of International Orbitals.
Summary of spaces and risks to the airplanes
The study authors worked to determine the chances that a rocket body will re -enter an airspace. They discovered that high density regions immediately around the main airports have a probability of 0.8% per year of being affected by an un controlled re -entry, but in areas of airspace “larger but still occupied” such as those found in the Northeast of the United States or in the main Asia cities, the risk increased to 26%.
The chances of the debris beating a plane are small, the authors of the study said, but a collision between a commercial plane and the space debris could “lead to massive casualties.”
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The risk will only grow as the spatial remains remain in orbit, the study authors warned. Transideable objects in orbit have doubled in the last decade. The number of daily flights has almost almost doubled since 2000. Large reacted occur almost weekly, the study authors point out.
“More than 2,300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually enter again in an un controlled way,” the study said. “The airspace authorities will face the challenge of un controlled reactations in the coming decades.”
Close airspace to avoid collisions
The authors of the study highlighted an incident in 2022, when a 20 -ton rocket body was established to re -enter the atmosphere. Predictions the night before the re -entry showed that it can land in southern Europe. The European industries of space and air traffic issued a safety bulletin that recommends that the authorities implement airspace restrictions. The Spanish and French authorities ended up closing part of their airspace. It was the first time that the airspace was closed by an uncontrolled re -entry.
The closures delayed 645 aircraft for approximately 29 minutes, including the deviation of some aircraft that were in the air. Air spaces in Italy, Portugal and Greece that did not close saw an “unexpected increase in air traffic” of deviant flights, creating “different and operational risks” that those raised by the falling spatial debris.
“The incident highlighted, among other things, a lack of preparation for this eventuality and the lack of harmonization of the responses between the states,” said the study authors.
The rocket’s body finally fell into the Pacific Ocean. The authors of the study argued that better than closing airspace would be if all rocket missions required controlled resentments, with graphic flight routes and scheduled landings. Less than 35% of launches currently have controlled resentments, the study authors said.
“The re -entry of the un controlled rocket body are a design option, not a need,” the study said. “If all operators use controlled reentrations, the risks for people and airplanes would be reduced considerably.”
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