It is likely that there is an agitated activity in the Ministry of External Affairs, since the reports point to a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington in just one week. That is unusual. Normally, an event of this magnitude would take months of preparation on both sides. A “official” of the White House has even confirmed that Modi will visit the United States on February 12, meeting with the president the next day. It is true that there had already been rumors that Modi possibly made a trip to Washington, especially after a scheduled visit to Paris to co -enter the artificial intelligence action summit. Until now, however, the Ministry has been silent in Washington’s visit, even when a hail of preparatory actions is evident in the previous period.
Irritants in advance: dollars and such
The initial winds did not seem good. As elected president, Trump threatened tariffs against the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), demanding that they leave any talk to get away from the dollar and have a separate currency.
That fear is not insubstantial. In recent times, the group has expanded to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt, and some 34 countries have presented an expression of interest in joining the block of the main emerging economies. Imposing tariffs against all of them would be a challenge, but any movement towards disdaining will surely invite some form of American remuneration. Until recently, almost 100% of oil trade was made in US dollars. But, in 2023, it was reported that a fifth of the oil trade was carried out under non -American dollar coins
The BRICS unit “, if it materializes, will be supported by a coin basket of the respective member countries. Among them, Yuan will be the strongest. This is a reality that barely serves the interests of Delhi. Since then, the minister DE EXTERNAL RELATIONS S. JAISHANKAR has denied the possibility of any support for such steps, indicating that it is not ‘political’ or ‘strategy’ to consider unfolding.
That is the number one movement, and very fast that indicates that in a group based on consensus, India will be aligned with the interests of the United States, at least in this case.
The deportation spree
The second concern is Trump’s threat to illegal migrants and the weapons of tariffs, which saw Columbia first fight but then knock down in a matter of hours, agreeing to recover all undocumented migrants. China also bowed, since almost five flights sent to the undocumented Chinese immigrants of America.
India, however, was quickly out of place, with Jaishankar in his press interaction pointing out that although Delhi wanted ‘legal mobility’ for his citizens, he was against illegal migration and all the other related threats they imply. The problem was clearly raised in his meeting with the Secretary of State of the United States Marco Rubio, as confirmed by a reading. It was approached ‘gently’, with the main text that emphasized continuous cooperation.
Days later, India confirmed that he was recovering 18,000 identified migrants, and about 205 were sent back to Amritsar, even when orders were given to ensure that bureaucratic procedures were in force. The problem is that there is much more where it came from. Last year, US data indicated that about 90,105 people tried to enter the country illegally, with Indians for a total of 3% of them. That is a lot, and it is not a problem that can be solved easily or quickly.
Those annoying rates do not exist
The recently presented union budget also made some significant ads, again advancing the tariff threats of the United States. It worked with maximum rates of 150%, 125% and 100% in imports. Actually, they were applied to only five articles, including the controversial motorcycles of Harley Davidson and the imported Tesla cars (as well as Japanese vehicles and other bicycles). While duties have been reduced, there is a cessation, which goes to the center. This can be used flexibly at any time.
Meanwhile, import tariffs in the 30 main articles exported by the USA. rank from zero to 7.5%. All this is a very good optic, with the data apparently shared with US officials, and the message that comes out of India is not, in fact, a country of ‘high tariffs’.
And then, China
Washington’s positive messages were also many, with Jaishankar as the first main diplomat in meeting with his counterpart, and the programming of the meeting of the foreign ministers of Quad immediately after the inauguration looks like Trump reinforcing his support of the grouping . That is also a clear sign for China of the White House, that analysts seem to have lost in the middle of the entire Bonhomie Vist that in the call between President Xi and Trump, which, according to the latter’s tweet, XI promised to work For a peaceful world.
The words, however, are cheap. It is true that Trump promised to “take charge” of the Gaza Strip in his meeting with Netyahu of Israel recently, it is unlikely that the approach in the Middle East changes. It is also true that Trump will call the Chinese president soon, this after he promised 60% tariffs against Beijing, but finally imposed a mere 10%. In any case, these rates are actually linked to narcotics traffic, something Beijing also considers a threat instead of trade. China, in turn, fired the launch of Deepseek immediately afterwards, which exceeded download lists and cleaned billions of dollars in the Nvidia market, sending the sign that the country can retaliate in multiple ways. Beijing’s real retaliation in terms of rates was relatively mild in hard terms. Wait more negotiation ahead.
An immutable constant
However, what is not open to negotiation is a constant in the National Security strategy of the United States: it unequivocally establishes that the United States does not tolerate competitors or challenges of other powers. This was Trump’s perspective, also, in 2017, and it is likely that it is now even more magnified. A Chinese will not be tolerated. And Trump, being what it is, will want other powers to intensify. That includes not only allies, but also ‘friends’ as India. Prepare to advance to the dish, with, as the reading of the White House made clear, plus the weapons purchases of the United States. The ‘strategic autonomy’ will be more difficult to maintain, at least in terms of Beijing’s perception management. The point, ultimately, is that China will be in charge and the center of American politics.
For India, this can be a great opportunity. The Indian Defense Cooperation Law of India Proposal 2024, introduced by Rubio, at that time senator, is an example. Treat India along with the US allies., Placing it in almost the same position as them in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in terms of provision of defense equipment. However, about the issue of technology transfer, there is not much today. This point must be added to a future proposal to be attractive to India and to boost not only the Indian defense industry but also the economy in general, in which everything else rests.
And, these additions will need a Trumpian launch to overcome Washington’s bureaucracy, something with which the president of the United States is already fighting. The question now is: is the president of the United States convinced that a strong India is in the interests of the United States? And is India ready to go to the entire pig in the Indo-Pacific in specific military terms?
Those are the two key questions, and on them they will depend on the friendship between us and India. The rest is simply a showcase.
(Tara Kartha is former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)
Discharge of responsibility: These are the author’s personal opinions
By
