The Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, became the first important victim of Trump 2.0’s meaningless approach, some could argue, his wrath without control. The president of the United States did not waste time to show the world that his recent burning rhetoric was not just for the show.
The Colombian president tried to face face to face with the most powerful man in the world. First, Petro demonstrated challenge, refusing to allow US military planes to transport illegal Colombian immigrants to land on his grass. He even launched a couple of indiplomatic words, calling Trump a “white scarce” supposedly determined to “clean the human species.” The subtlety clearly was missing. And when Trump responded with a threat of 25% of tariffs on Colombian goods, Petro, trying to hit over his weight, promised to counteract with 50%.
National hero to humiliation
So far, so good. But only a few hours after publishing his wild challenges in X, Petro folded faster than anyone could imagine. To everyone’s surprise, he agreed to recover his undocumented citizens, in terms of the USA. That meant that they would be sent in military, chained and handcuffed airplanes. If you feel charitable, you can turn this as both sides “reaching a resolution.” But the truth is that Petro stirred. He went from being a national hero to national humiliation in record time. At one point, he was the intrepid leader who faced the most powerful country in the world; The next, he was the guy who collapsed, leaving his critics and followers equally.
The lesson is that going face to face with Trump can create a good show, but in practice, it could leave it injured and scar. At the end of the burning show, an alleged White House issued what can only be described as a global warning threat: “Today’s events make the world clear that the United States is respected again.” The message was that if you crossed Trump, you could find yourself at the receiving end of his doctrine “America First”.
‘Tremendous rates’
Trump did not waste time flexing his muscles either. He has been openly critical of India. Just a week after his second term, he grouped India, China and Brazil at the “Tremendous Rate Rate” club, essentially changing his friends and enemies from the first term in a single category of rioters. The man who once extended the red carpet for “Howdy, Modi!” Now it seems more inclined to deploy the lists of rates.
Interestingly, while he has been busy repeating EU countries and throwing NATO shadow, a country remains remarkably intact: Great Britain. In fact, he did everything possible to praise Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for reasons that no one seems able to point out. What follows? One wonders why the same generosity of spirit could not extend to India, especially after the show of mutual worship during Modi’s visits in the United States in its first term.
The unpredictable style and transactional worldview of Trump seem to be prepared to complicate Washington’s relationship with New Delhi. This time there is no re -election offer to moderate the impulses of a Trump without restrictions and without restrictions. If your recent movements are an indication, your second term could see less fanfare and more hardball. And for India, navigating these waters may require more than charm and photographs, it will demand a serious diplomatic feet game.
‘America First’ vs ‘Make In India’
If Trump has turned “America first” into his battle cry, India has sworn for a long time for his own foreign policy doctrine: strategic autonomy. A doctrine that, in theory, allows New Delhi to bring its own course without folding external pressures. But the theory and reality, as history reminds us, does not always shake hands. From COVID-19, the nations, including India, have doubled in national markets, expanded the production bases and promised to build supply chains as resistant as their political speeches claim they are. But now, the world faces a resurgent America under Trump 2.0, whose zero tolerance for global equilibrium acts is well documented. Will India remain firm, or the weight of tariffs, commercial imbalances and immigration disputes will force you to “adjust”?
India a ‘King Tarifa’?
Do not forget that Trump has previously described India as the “tariff king”, highlighting what he saw as excessively high import tariffs in American products. The examples of high tariffs, provided by the American side to support their complaints, are the following:
- Agriculture: Almond tariffs (17%) and apples (70%)
- Luxury articles: The rate of 150% of India on imported alcoholic beverages such as bourbon whiskey
- Technology: India imposes high tasks in high -end electronic goods, such as iPhones and laptops
- High range motorcycles: India has imposed tariffs of up to 100% on luxury motorcycles, including those of Harley-Davidson, a frequent point of conversation for Trump in its first mandate.
- Medical devices: India’s price limits on imported medical devices, such as stents, have received criticism from US manufacturers
Trump could press for tariff reduction or reciprocal measures. It can also threaten retaliation tariffs in Indian exports if there is no progress.
Trump 1.0 tracks
Commercial relations under Trump’s first mandate were, at best, a mixed bag. While bilateral trade grew, tensions on rates and access to market over low heat. I remember how in 2019, Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of the benefits that India enjoyed under the generalized preferences system (GSP) gave a significant blow to relationships. He highlighted the hard position of his administration on commercial imbalances. I think that, under the current Trump RIN, trade negotiations would probably continue to be controversial, with the United States by pressing greater access to Indian markets, particularly in agriculture, dairy and electronic commerce
India, on the other hand, has every right to protect its national industries while exporting exports in sectors such as pharmaceutical products, IT services and textiles. If Trump has based his foreign policy on “America first”, Modi’s doctrine is “Make in India.”
Indian immigrants
Trump’s hard line posture about immigration is disturbing for many countries, including India. There are India reports that are preparing to accept recovering less than 20,000 of its undocumented citizens in the United States. However, according to the official data of 2022, with 7,25,000 illegal immigrants, India has the second highest number of undocumented citizens in the United States after its neighbor, Mexico. Trump could demand that India accept a significant part of these citizens. His focus on this issue could be intensified, especially given his previous emphasis on taking energetic measures in the immigration of non -European countries.
Accepting a large number of deportees would be politically sensitive in India. On the other hand, rejecting or delaying cooperation can lead to tense relationships, with Trump potentially taking advantage of other areas, such as commercial or visa policies, such as negotiation chips. The big problem is to elaborate this topic.
Trump’s zero trade and tolerance
In 2022, the bilateral trade of goods and services between India and the United States reached $ 191.8 billion, with India enjoying a commercial surplus of $ 45.7 billion. The Trump administration will probably strive to correct this imbalance, testing the diplomatic and economic strategies of India. Since the United States is the largest export market in India, how will the New Delhi balance its interests and take advantage of its position? A hard call in fact.
The commercial deficit in general is an annoying problem for Trump. The United States commercial deficit against India, although much less than that against China, is still a great concern for its administration. After all, Trump had pointed to Canada for his commercial imbalance and threatened to turn him into state 51 of the United States. Will India be directed with higher tariffs or will renegotiates of commercial terms? In my opinion, Trump is likely to demand greater access to the goods and services of the United States in India.
India, in turn, could face pressure to reduce tariffs on various products, risking a violent reaction from national industries that benefit from protectionist policies. Trump can also demand concessions on electronic commerce regulations, data location requirements and government acquisition policies.
Win some, lose something
However, there is always space to maneuver, at least between Trump’s ‘road’ and his ‘My way’. Take the Visa H-1B program, a line of life for the Ti sector of India and a constant thorn in the “First America” of Trump. With the Indians who represent more than 70% of H-1B recipients, any attempt to tighten eligibility, limit extensions or increase rates would affect Indian professionals. Trump has never been shy to attack H-1BS, arguing that they steal jobs for US workers. This time, your administration could be even more aggressive.
And then there are the students, more than 200,000 Indians who currently study in the United States, pumping billions to American universities. It is possible that Trump does not explicitly pursue them, but the highest visa rates, the work restrictions after study or broader immigration repressions could make life much more difficult. Of course, there is always the possibility that they can use them as negotiation chips, after all, everything is a deal in Trump’s world.
India game
So what could the game of India be? Strategic autonomy should be preserved, yes, but in practice, the Ministry of External Affairs may have to be more creative, agile and attractive. To begin with, the Indian ambassador must be someone with contacts in the halls of power and a person who can widely promote the interests of India. India could also take advantage of its importance of the Indo-Pacific, to remember Washington that remains a crucial counterweight to China and, be honest, creates some concessions. The opening of key sectors such as retail trade, electronic commerce or defense for US companies could buy India a space to breathe.
Meanwhile, working on back channels (officials of Indian origin in the Trump administration, pro-india legislators, corporate allies) help soften blows. India has a very delicate path to walk over the next four years.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a Senior Indian journalist based in London with three decades of experience with Western media)
Discharge of responsibility: These are the author’s personal opinions
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