What’s on the agenda of the Raisina Dialogue?

The story so far:

A month after this year’s explosive Munich Security Conference, where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance put Europe on notice, Delhi is set to host the annual Raisina Dialogue from March 17-19, where U.S. President Donald Trump’s seismic foreign policy shifts are expected to be the big conversation points again.

What are the issues expected to make the headlines?

The 10th edition of the annual Raisina Dialogue will be inaugurated on Monday by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where the chief guest, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, will deliver the keynote address, with the theme “Kalachakra” (wheel of time). However, a big contingent from the U.S. is expected to take the centre stage, given the twists and turns in American policy under Mr. Trump — from the Ukraine war, the talks with Russia, the new tariff regime that threatens ties between the U.S. and countries around the world, including India, the U.S.’ fraying relations with its NATO and European allies, uncertainty around the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific policy, and new statements on China and Taiwan.

Amidst the turmoil, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is leading a team to Delhi for an intelligence chiefs’ conference at the weekend hosted by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and will speak at the Raisina Dialogue. Apart from Ms. Gabbard, the Special Assistant to U.S. President Trump and National Security Council official, Ricky Gill, and Senior Counsellor to Mr. Trump, James Carafano, who was a key figure behind the Republican campaign document “Project 2025”, are also listed as speakers and are expected to defend the U.S.’ moves.

A Quad panel with senior Navy leadership from the four countries, India, Australia, Japan and the U.S., is expected as India gears up to host the Quad leader summit this year, which is expected to see some announcements on expanding maritime cooperation.

What can be expected in Ukraine?

The Raisina Dialogue follows weeks of dramatic developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, including the showdown between Mr. Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, followed by rounds of U.S.-Russia talks and then U.S.-Ukraine talks about a ceasefire, which will no doubt be a major point of discussion at the dialogue, and on its sidelines. Eleven of the 20 Foreign and other Ministers arriving for the dialogue are from Europe, including Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

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In 2024, the numbers were even more skewed, with chief guest Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and 15 of 21 Foreign Ministers present from Europe, making a concerted pitch for India to shift its position on Ukraine. This year, all eyes will be on discussions and debate that pit European leaders against those from the U.S., particularly Ms. Gabbard, who has in the past batted for better U.S.-Russia ties. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who used to be a regular speaker, will not attend. At the Raisina Dialogue in 2023, Mr. Lavrov faced a barrage of questions over the war in Ukraine during a session, that got extremely heated over the question of Russia joining talks for a ceasefire.

Also on the list is International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi, who will be an important speaker on the war in Ukraine, and the possibility of reviving nuclear talks with Iran.

Who else is coming?

The speakers’ list at the Raisina Dialogue serves as a good barometer of India’s relations with various countries, and which countries participate are often as important as those who miss the event. According to the list released by the Ministry of External Affairs, the Foreign Ministers of Bhutan, D. N. Dhungyel; Nepal, Arzu Rana Deuba; and the Maldives, Abdulla Khaleel, will attend the meet. Mauritius’ Foreign Minister, Dhananjay Ramful, will also be present.

Given tense ties with India’s western neighbour, Raisina Dialogue does not invite Pakistani delegates. However, it is notable that no speakers from Bangladesh or representatives of the Yunus government are listed this year. The programme lists a speaker from China’s Fudan University, which reflects the thaw in bilateral ties after the meeting between Mr. Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping last October.

Another country with which India may see a thaw this year is Canada, given the change in leadership. The Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, Daniel Rogers, who is in Delhi, could also attend the Dialogue. In addition, former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, both regular attendees, will be present.

Despite the Indian government’s attempts at improving ties with West Asia (GCC) and South East Asia (ASEAN), both regions aren’t well represented again, a trend visible for the last few years. The only exceptions are the Philippines’ Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Enrique Manalo, and Thailand’s Foreign Minister, Maris Sangiampongsa. Foreign Ministers from Ghana, Cuba, Peru, Antigua and Barbuda are the others attending from the Global South.

How did the Raisina Dialogue start?

Launched in 2016 by the Ministry of External Affairs as a “flagship Indian international dialogue”, the Raisina Dialogue aims to bring together leaders and thinkers from around the world. Envisioned by the government as a potential rival to the Munich Security Conference and Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, the Indian version is named after the Raisina Hills, where Rashtrapati Bhavan, key Ministries and Parliament are located in the capital.