Artificial intelligence (AI) could have predicted the powerful solar storm that impacted the earth in May last year, caused by the highly active region AR13664 in the sun, according to a new study. The team of researchers from the University of Genoa, led by Sabrina Guastavino, declared that by training AI in historical solar events, it could identify patterns that precede the ejections of coronal mass (CMEs).
This early warning system is crucial because traditional methods, which depend on the human analysis of solar images and data, often provide less precise and timely forecasts.
“Despite the advances in the observation and development of the model, so far there is a substantial uncertainty both in the Bengal Forecast predictions and in the CME travel time, and the latter ascended average of approximately 12 hours,” declared the study.
The AI model works by processing large amounts of solar image data and other spatial meteorological parameters. Look for subtle signals in the behavior of the solar atmosphere, such as changes in resistance to magnetic field, solar wind speed and the appearance of solar flares.
“The May 2024 event also underlines the broader implications of reverse engineering promoted by AI for the science of space climate,” said the study.
“The ability to predict CME travel times with such precision suggests that AI can also serve as a diagnostic tool to test and refine existing CME propagation models,” he added.
What is the expulsion of the coronal mass?
The powerful storms or CMEs are massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic fields of the Crown of the Sun. The huge electrified gas clouds travel at speeds of hundreds of miles per second and can affect electrical networks, communications, GPS navigation, air trips and satellites.
According to Isro, the geomagnetic storm last year was the most intense since 2003, causing interruptions in communication and GPS systems.
Also read | Solar storm that recently hit the earth was more intense since 2003: Isro
Solar flares
The solar activity follows a pattern with peaks and minimums that occur every 11 years. Scientists describe these cycles as the maximum and the minimum solar, which are driven by the magnetic field of the sun.
Currently, solar cycle 25 is underway, which is expected to reach a solar maximum around July 2025. This cycle has shown greater activity than provided by NASA and NOAA (Oceanic and Atmospheric National Administration), with the Official prediction of around 115 sun spots on top.
Despite having a greater amount of data available, scientists are not sure why the sun has been more active than expected. More observation is needed to improve future predictions and increase our understanding of internal sun processes.
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